Ambitions and targets for the offshore energy transition
The offshore energy system integration roadmap for the North Sea aligns as much as possible with the existing national and international targets. This section provides an overview of targets and ambitions in the EU and North Sea countries on the dominant offshore technologies and commodities: offshore wind, (green and blue) hydrogen, natural gas and CO₂ for storage.
The EU wide and national targets show that there are high ambitions for decarbonization which includes a role for offshore wind and hydrogen. However, the existing ambitions lack clarity on which commodity/technology is more desired in the coming decades, particularly among blue hydrogen, CCS and natural gas. These ambitions also lack clarity on the interdependencies between these commodities.
Most countries have dedicated targets and ambitions for offshore wind, often for the short and long term. The targets of the North Sea countries for offshore wind are significant: together they aim for approximately 120 GW in 2030 and more than 320 GW of installed capacity in 2050. For reference, the EU offshore wind target for 2050 is set at 300 GW. Note that the EU target does not include the installed capacities of UK and Norway. Countries associated in the North Seas Energy Cooperation (this excludes UK) have expressed a target of 76 GW in 2030 and 260 GW in 2050.
Ambitions and Targets for Offshore Wind Capacity (NSEC = The North Sea Energy Cooperation)
Ambitions for Low-Carbon Hydrogen Production Capacity in 2030
Low-carbon hydrogen targets have been announced only for 2030. The sum of the North Sea countries targets is ambitious, and comparable with the old EU wide target of 40 GW of installed capacity. This has been upgraded in the REPowerEU plan to 65 GW to 80 GW.
For CCS and natural gas less clear targets are set by North Sea countries and the EU. Many North Sea countries with carbon dioxide storage potential reported these potentials and importance of CCS in climate change actions. However, only the UK and Norway have set ambitions for the technologies within their decarbonization strategies. The UK recently increased the ambition from 10 Mt/yr to 20-30 Mt/yr by 2030 .
Denmark is the only country with an explicitly planned phasing-out of natural gas and, in 2020, announced a ban on new exploration and end to production by 2050. The Ukraine crisis has changed the plan to increase production for the shorter term but maintain the long-term goal. A specific case is Norway, which has set an ambition for CCS and wants to continue extracting natural gas at the significant levels at least until 2050. Since the start of the Ukraine invasion, most countries announced the continuation or expansion of domestic natural gas production, or reduction of domestic natural gas demand. However, these announcements are mostly focused only on the coming years and do not shed light on the long-term role of natural gas.