Offshore Wind
All North Sea countries have set ambitious targets for offshore wind deployment. At least 6 GW of wind capacity should be installed annually in the North Sea region to reach the targets set by the individual member states. Though there are signs that the installation pace – currently 3.4 GW per year and expected to grow to 5.6GW per year – needs to evolve even faster in the coming decades. The increase of the European GHG reduction ambitions from 49% to 55% - or to even higher levels in some countries – will accelerate the pace of installation. Furthermore, the targets have been strengthened as a response to the crisis in Ukraine.
However, whether or not such higher deployment rates can be realised before 2030 is questionable, not only due to timely available spatial plans that set the pace of space allocation and permitting procedures, but also due to the availability of a skilled workforce, vessels, components, materials, and legal issues. Nevertheless, the intention to speed up is present. Germany already announced to increase their offshore wind target considerably to 30 GW by 2030. The Netherlands intends to reach 21 GW by 2030/2031. The UK has committed to reaching 40 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 and expressed a 50 GW ambition with scenario outcomes of 100 GW in 2050. The countries signing the Esbjerg Offshore Wind Declaration (Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium) have set a target of at least 65 GW by 2030 and 150 GW by 2050. In a wider setting, the nine countries participating in the North Seas Energy Cooperation (NSEC) (excluding the UK) have set a target of at least 76 GW by 2030, 193 GW by 2040 and 260 GW of offshore wind by 2050. This is a considerable step up from the current 28 GW (incl. UK) of offshore wind installed.
WindEurope estimated the consenting rate and installation rates in the North Sea to achieve the 2050 target of 212 GW, which is about two-thirds of the European target of 300 GW. The highest installation rate is 9.8 GW per annum or 2,000 km2 per annum across the North Sea (see also figure below). Their expectation is that the pace of installation increases in the late 20’s, reaches its maximum by the mid-30s and declines slowly by the mid-40s.
The installation rate will differ per region. Germany and the UK account currently for the largest share of capacity installed. With developments taking place in floating offshore wind, the expectation is that future installations in deeper waters – such as in the Norwegian continental shelf - will soon become commercially attractive. DNV expects the costs of floating wind to reduce by 70% as 2050 approaches, resulting in only a small premium in LCOE compared to the bottom-fixed wind average.
Consenting and installation rates required to achieve 212 GW by 2050 for the North Sea (Source: BVG Associates for WindEurope)
Highlights of offshore wind transition pathway
Offshore wind production shows a steep growth path towards 2050.
Very high growth rates are required to meet North Sea countries’ ambitions; the stated 2030 targets especially are very difficult to attain with the existing supply chain capacities
The high growth rates are forecasted from 2025 onwards with additions of more than 10 GW/yr. The annual installed capacity for the five-year periods beyond 2030 peaks at 13 GW/yr and only flattens beyond 2045 to 7 GW/yr
Peak electricity production will be reached in 2050 equals almost 1.5 PWh from an installed base of ~320 GW (incl. UK), out of which at least 200 GW in EU North Sea waters equals almost two third of the EU’s offshore wind capacity target (300 GW for entire EU).
Largest capacities are installed in UK, Netherlands, Denmark and Germany
Offshore wind production pathway.