The Challenges and Windows of Opportunity per Decade

The Booming 2030s

The decade of build out, action and the ‘Double Dutch’ energy system

The key phrase of the 2030s is ‘Limits to growth’. The transition pathways sketched above are almost for all commodities stretching the limits of the supply chains. For offshore wind the 10 GW/yr capacity addition mark (see Offshore Wind) is surpassed throughout the decade. For hydrogen the rates are 7-9 GW/yr throughout the decade. This represents a significant share of the European capabilities. Electrolyser manufacturers have set the objective to a tenfold increase in electrolyser manufacturing capacity from 1.75 GW to 17.5 GW by 2025, and to “further increase that capacity by 2030 in line with projected demand for renewable and low-carbon hydrogen”. In individual North Sea countries plans have been announced for new electrolyser factories in the multi GW scale (0.5 to more than 7GW). For CCS and blue hydrogen the installation rate of new CCS projects is pushing the limits. In the 2030s the deployment rate is set at 9-12 Mt of storage capacity to be added, each year. This decade may also see the first large scale offshore storage of hydrogen when onshore storage capacity is limited for technical reasons or when societal support is lacking.

In the meantime the natural gas system must be kept in good condition to ensure that the domestic gas production is sustained to maintain import dependency to acceptable levels and to have an infrastructure in place to provide the flexibility and security of supply in a an energy system that undergoes massive transformation. We dubbed this ‘the Double Dutch decade’ as the new integrated energy system is not yet likely to be able to cope with all fluctuations and security of supply challenges that volatile offshore wind and other renewables bring forward; and the natural gas phase-out is ongoing but it is still essential that this part of the system provides these critical services.     

This decade sees offshore activities soaring (building of wind, marine energy, hydrogen, CCS projects, decommissioning first wind projects and oil & gas assets) and therefore pressure on the environment is inevitable but should be kept to a minimum level where possible. Extensive monitoring of environmental impacts and building with nature concepts are needed to be enforced to ensure ecological value is not lost but gained.

This decade will test the limits of our human capital in the region. Challenges are foreseen with realizing the pathways sketched. The pool of labour is already stretched in the North Sea countries and demographic trends show an ageing workforce over the next decades. In the 2030s this would mean that there should be a workforce in place to accommodate all the activities foreseen to achieve the goals set for wind & marine energy, CCS, hydrogen, energy islands/hubs and natural gas developments. Research indicated that the re-training of workforce between sectors can be troublesome. Thus, educational programs must be in place in the 2020s already to have enough people ready for work in the 2030s. This will only solve part of the challenge. The other part is expected to be delivered by further automation and digitalization of the North Sea system. A trusted digital twin is a key proposed digital innovation to achieve efficient and robust operations. Efficient and robust design and operations will guarantee security of supply, maximize profits and avoid unsafe operations, therefore preserving components integrity and extending system run lifetime. The trusted digital twin can be a driving force to accelerate system integration and collaboration within the North Sea.

In this future, inspections and repairs of critical components that must be performed in harsh weather conditions (such as for offshore wind turbines or subsea completions for subsurface activities) will be executed in an autonomous fashion. The use of drones and other automated vessels will allow safer, more effective and profitable solutions for inspection and maintenance.

The Shifting 2040s

Maintain the low-carbon pace and orderly phase-out of the fossils

Offshore wind and hydrogen are still growing at considerable rates with double digit GWs installed per year. The technologies are fully matured and decommissioning followed by repowering the first large scale wind areas is ongoing. The North Sea region is a net exporter of gases towards other parts of Europe and the world. Norway is still expected to be producing considerable amounts of natural gas for direct export or for export in the form of blue hydrogen. This results in potential CO₂ emissions formed in the order of 200 MtCO2 per year in early 2040s; parts of this being offset by capturing CO₂ in the blue hydrogen production.

Nevertheless, the annual carbon budget is expected to become net negative in the mid-2040s; this means that for the commodities under study (methane, CO₂ stored, blue hydrogen) the North Sea will be a net sink for CO₂. To achieve this the pace of CCS projects must continue with more and more CO₂ being stored from biogenic sources and the atmosphere.

Offshore wind swaps places with natural gas as the main energy source from the North Sea. This decade sees the large scale phase out of natural gas production on the North Sea starting in Norway. For the other countries decommission peak is already behind them at its end and natural gas production has likely ceased at the end of the 2040s or will be fading. The challenge for the legacy infrastructure assets is the planning of what should be kept available (mothballing) for storing CO₂ and H2 in the future for the period after 2050. A critical uncertainty here is what the role of negative emissions will mean for the need for maintaining high rates of CO2 storage or also the phase out of this technology beyond 2050.

In this decade the offshore backbones for hydrogen and CO₂ have been fully realised to form an interconnected network in NW Europe. This provides very large flexibility to the region in combination with large storage potential deployed for hydrogen, both onshore and offshore. This could be tens to even hundreds of TWh of storage capacity in caverns and depleted gas fields.

The human capital needs are still very high for offshore wind and hydrogen in terms of construction and operation & maintenance. Automation and digitization of inspection, operation and maintenance is expected to mitigate this to some extent.

The Nature Positive 2050s

From carbon neutrality towards reclaiming global carbon budget and strengthening the ecosystem

The 2050s are the end-point in many scenarios and models. But the challenging point might be just in that decade the world starts going carbon negative and as society we are actually net removing CO₂ from the atmosphere. The deployment of such net atmospheric CO₂ removal options like biomass conversion combined with CCS or CO₂ capture from the atmosphere contributes to limiting global warming to 1.5°C but are prone to high uncertainty. Both their technical as market potential are uncertain, but likely such solutions are needed if we overshoot our CO₂ reduction targets up to 2050.

For the North Sea critical choices need to be made and long-term planning horizons need to be explored on whether the CO₂ storage potential in this basin will be used for this purpose and thus that CO₂ storage potential remains accessible while hydrocarbon production has ceased.  

The role of net negative CO₂ emissions in a portfolio of future pathways (source: IPCC, 2018: Summary for Policymakers)