CO₂ Capture, Transport and Storage (CCS)

CCS is generally seen as inevitable in order to reach the GHG-targets. In 2021, 27 operational CCS sites in in the world combined had the capacity to capture and permanently store around 37 million tonnes of CO2 every year (Mtpa). With 3 Mtpa of capacity under construction. In addition to the commercial scale operational sites, there are also 39 pilot and demonstration scale CCS facilities (operating or about to be commissioned) and 9 CCS technology test centres.

There are two CCS sites currently operational in Europe, both located in Norway – Sleipner and Snøhvit. Combined, both plants currently store 1.7Mtpa of CO₂. There are also 10 large scale CCS facilities in various stages of development (6 in the UK, 2 in the Netherlands, 1 in Norway and 1 in Ireland). When operational, these facilities will capture 20.8 Mtpa (Global CCS Institute, 2019). A few of these projects are at or close to FID stages, e.g. Porthos and ARAMIS in the Netherlands and ACORN in the UK (all of which are expected to be in FID stage in or before 2023), which plan to store CO₂ in geological formations under the North Sea. An important cross border project is the Northern Lights project which, from 2025 onwards, will store 0.8 Mtpa captured at the Yara SluiskilI ammonia production plant. It will ship CO₂ in the liquid form to be stored offshore in the Norwegian subsurface.

A fair level of consensus exists on the role of carbon storage in the short-term as cost-effective solution to help mitigate CO₂ emissions. This is different for the long term. The regional perspectives vary with respect to the role of import of carbon from regions outside the North Sea Region as well as the role of achieving negative emissions. The IEA Net Zero 2050 scenario suggest that bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) and Direct Air Capture (DAC) coupled with geological storage will be needed to capture and store 1.9GtCO2 by 2050 (IEA (2021)’ Net Zero by 2050’, IEA Paris). Lower concentration of CO₂ in ambient air compared with CO₂ levels in industrial flue gasses presents an economic challenge for DAC. BECCS technology – with estimated costs of about USD 25/tCO₂ – is expected to become the key technology for negative energy capture technology.  There is clearly some interest from North Sea region to spur projects with negative emissions in Sweden, UK, Norway, Denmark and Netherlands in combination with cement production, waste to energy plants and power plants.

Longer term scenarios by ENTSO-E and ENTSO-G sketch 33 Mt/yr to be stored in the EU in 2030 growing towards 64 Mt/yr in the Distributed Energy scenario. In the contrasting Global Ambition scenario CCS increases towards 158 in 2030 and 662 Mt stored per year in 2050. Combining biomass conversion and refining (e.g. biomethane to hydrogen)  in combination with CCS is also foreseen to have a role in achieving negative emissions. This enables achieving climate targets and offset possible carbon budget overshoots in hard to abate sectors.

Highlights of Carbon Capture and Storage transition pathway

  • The natural gas demand in the North Sea region countries results in more than 150 Mt of CO₂ being formed in the year 2050. This leaves a CO₂ avoidance gap that is assumed to be compensated by CCS from fossil, biogenic origin or from the atmosphere.

  • A carbon budget of 7 Gt of CO₂ is consumed with the commodities under consideration (excl import of H2)

  • Capture of CO₂ from fossil fuel production, processing and fossil fuel reforming (blue hydrogen production) dominates the stored CO₂ volumes towards 2050

  • The addition of newly added CCS projects is at its highest in 2030-2040 with 9-12 Mt/ yr of storage projects added

  • The peak of the North Sea CO₂ storage sector is forecasted for 2050 with 170 Mt of CO₂ stored on an annual basis

  • From 2040 onwards CO₂ captured from biogenic sources or directly from the air supports further decarbonisation of the North Sea region (by 2050 this is 20% of cumulatively stored CO₂)

  • Phase out of blue hydrogen production starts gradually from 2040 onwards

  • A cumulative of almost 2.5 Gt of CO₂ is to be stored under the seabed in the North Sea region by 2050

Carbon Capture and Storage Pathway. Visit Commodity Actions Carbon Capture

Note: The CO₂ avoidance gap is defined as the total sum of CO₂ emissions formed from natural gas consumption minus the total amount of CO₂ stored in the NSR countries.