General System Trends Towards 2050

ENTSO-E and ENTSO-G have sketched contrasting scenarios towards 2050 “to explore different pathways with regard to the identified scenario drivers, with the purpose of covering uncertainty in the possible use of energy infrastructure”. They are the Distributed Energy scenario and Global Ambition scenario. The Distributed Energy scenario has high European autonomy with renewable and decentralised focus. The Global Ambition scenario with more centralised (large scale) low carbon and renewable energy options. The latter entails typically higher levels of offshore wind, more import of low carbon energy and more CCS deployment. The demand for methane is rapidly declining in both scenarios and has similar outcomes in 2050. In comparison to each other, the Global Ambition scenario has higher natural gas demands and the Distributed Energy has higher production and import of biomethane.

A very important trend is the electrification of the energy system-transitioning from the dominance of molecules to electricity from wind, water and sun as dominating primary energy sources. This trend entails a systemic change from converting gases and solids into electricity to converting electricity into molecules (gases/ liquids). This boils down to a system that shifts from high flexibility on the supply side toward limited flexibility on the supply side. This in a system that is more based on electricity than on molecules which has more limited options in transporting and storing energy. This means a general push for technologies that provide flexibility by converting or storing energy in various forms. But dominant in many scenarios is the role of hydrogen and biomethane in providing the system resilience for longer disparity between supply and demand and making use of the high flexibility in the gas infrastructure for transporting and storing energy.

The role of the subsurface in the future energy system will change considerably. The conventional role as the stable supplier of commodities like natural gas will slowly fade and is likely to be replaced by a role that can be described as ‘subsurface-as-a-service’. Most likely, the subsurface will not only be supplying commodities, but it will also increasingly provide services like CO₂ storage and energy storage to accommodate the energy transition and deep emission reduction pathways with CCS and large shares of variable renewable energy technologies (such as wind and solar).

The last trend of considerable importance is the import and export of energy. In the scenarios, the import of liquids (e.g. oil), solids (e.g. coal) and methane is declining, and natural gas import is replaced partially by the import of hydrogen (from renewable or other low carbon sources) and by the import of synthetic and biomethane.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022 has intensified the trends listed above and have shifted the import strategies from Russian gas towards other suppliers and intensified targets for domestic renewable energy considerably. Targets for offshore wind and hydrogen have been increased significantly since then and natural gas consumption targets have been drastically lowered to reduce import-dependency for the short and long term.